The Question
What if the problem is not human nature, but the way we design the systems people have to live in?
How do housing, work, water, nature and the local economy relate to one another? This analysis uses Portugal as a case for exploring that question.
A separate problem often receives a separate answer. This text explores how problems can reinforce one another and which design choices could change their connections.
The ecological lens is an interpretive framework. It helps raise questions about diversity, circulation and resilience. History, power, interests and local circumstances also need investigation of their own.
What can we learn from living systems without pretending a society is a forest? That question connects the sources, analogies and hypotheses on this page.
Sulitânia’s historical experience in southern Portugal is a starting point. The cooperative is winding down work at the previous site and seeking a new location. The practice and analysis invite further scrutiny.
Note on Method
How this analysis came about
The original analysis from June 2026 emerged through conversations between a Sulitânia member and Claude (Anthropic). Practice supplied questions and experience; digital tools helped compare sources and organise arguments.
The text contains data from the publications cited, interpretations and hypotheses. The October 2026 editorial review improved explanations and current location references. Not all numerical and historical statements were independently rechecked in that review; consult the primary source before formal use.
The people publishing the analysis remain responsible for the arguments chosen. Further criticism, checking and research can improve the text.
The analysis draws on three kinds of knowledge.
The institutional publications cited provide the source basis for the June 2026 analysis. Figures relate to their period and definition. Check the primary source and its currency before drawing a policy or financial conclusion.
Claims marked [*] come from secondary sources and need further verification. A plausible figure is not yet a verified fact.
Ecological parallels are functional analogies drawn from agroecology and systems science (Götsch, Ingham, FAO, Ostrom, Holling, Meadows). They describe structural resemblance, not literal likeness. A society is not a forest. But both are complex adaptive systems, and the design principles that make one resilient teach us something about the other.
Feedback loops are partly documented explicitly in the literature, partly built up by combining data from several sources. Each carries a label: [Documented], [Partly documented] or [Hypothetical].
The analysis means to open a conversation, not close one.
The Diagnosis
Source basis of the original analysis, June 2026: OECD, IMF, European Commission, Eurostat, INE and IPMA. The figures below are a dated account from that text, not a live dashboard. Not all secondary data has been independently confirmed.
1. The Economy Grows, But the People Leave
GDP grew 1.9 percent in 2024, unemployment sits at a historic low of 6.4 percent, and public debt fell from 134 percent in 2020 to 93.6 percent in 2024. At the same time, Portugal has the highest emigration rate in Europe. Some 2.3 million citizens live abroad, roughly 30 percent of those aged 15 to 39 have left [*], and almost half of the emigrants hold a university degree [*]. The minimum wage is 910 euros a month and labour productivity sits below the OECD average. The growth is real, but the prosperity does not reach everyone.
2. The Interior Empties While the Coast Overflows
Lisbon and Porto hold 45 percent of the population on 5 percent of the territory. Castro Marim counts 7,069 inhabitants on 301 km², 23 per km² against a national average of 117, with an ageing index of 241.9 and an average monthly income of 894.50 euros [*].
3. Housing Has Become Extractive
House prices rose 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, the highest on record. Wages grew forty percent in a decade, prices more than 170 [*]. The Commission estimates overvaluation at 35 percent, the highest in the EU. Social housing makes up 1.1 percent of the stock, the lowest in the OECD, and a rent in Lisbon takes about sixty percent of household income.
4. The Climate Is Shifting Faster Than Adaptation
By late 2024 more than half the territory was in drought. The fires of 2017 cost more than a hundred lives and destroyed 500,000 hectares [*], and the fire season lengthened from two months to five [*]. Road transport accounts for 96 percent of land-transport emissions, with a vehicle fleet averaging fourteen years. That 71 percent of electricity in 2024 came from renewables is a bright spot.
5. Health Inequalities Widen
Inequality by gender and income runs above the EU average. Only 26 percent of adults exercise three times a week or more, against 31 percent in the EU, and rural areas are the least served.
6. The Working-Age Population Is Shrinking
The OECD foresees a 16 percent decline over twenty years. The birth rate stands at 1.4 where 2.1 is needed for replacement, and in 2024, 33 percent of babies had a foreign mother, against 16 percent in 2015.
The History
Phase 1: Colonial Extraction (15th-20th Century)
For five centuries Portugal drew value from elsewhere: gold and sugar from Brazil, spices from India, enslaved people from Africa. When the colonies gained independence in 1975, more than 500,000 retornados returned. The model broke; the mindset stayed.
Phase 2: Rural Extraction Under the Estado Novo (1930s-1970s)
Under the Estado Novo the extraction turned inward, with wheat campaigns, internal colonisation, dams and large-scale eucalyptus planting: short-term output, long-term ruin. Since the 1960s, 80 percent of the territory has lost population [*], and between 1960 and 1974 a million and a half people emigrated. In ecological terms, that is soil mining.
Phase 3: Emigration as Extraction (1960s-Present)
Then emigration itself became a form of extraction. Portugal invests public money in education and then exports the graduates, 2.3 million by now, almost half with a degree. A composting process whose compost ends up in northern Europe.
Phase 4: EU Accession and Structural Dependency (1986-2008)
EU accession modernised the surface, but the structural funds displaced small-scale agriculture, so there was no productive base left when the 2008 crisis hit. External inputs raised the visible growth while the capacity beneath it was hollowed out, the way chemical agriculture works.
Phase 5: Tourism and Housing as the New Extraction (2015-Present)
And since 2015 tourism has taken over that role, grown from ten million visitors in 2010 to more than thirty million in 2023, with housing prices rising alongside. The same architecture again: external demand draws out local value, and a diverse landscape thins to monoculture.
The Thread: The thread through all five phases: value flows from periphery to centre, the periphery grows poorer, and each phase creates the conditions for the next. Each time, the commons are enclosed.
The Feedback Loops
Loop 1: Emigration-Housing SpiralHypothesised
Brain drain leads to labour shortages, which draw immigration, which drives housing demand, which raises prices, until more Portuguese leave.
Loop 2: Eucalyptus-Fire-Depopulation CycleDocumented
Depopulation leaves land unmanaged, where eucalyptus and scrub take hold, which feeds fire, which destroys, which drives more departure. The literature is explicit here: forest fires are directly related to depopulation.
Loop 3: Housing-Fertility ImplosionPartially documented
Unaffordable housing delays family formation, which lowers the birth rate, which shrinks the workforce, which slows construction, which drives scarcity and so prices higher still.
Loop 4: Climate-Agriculture-Water-Tourism CascadeHypothesised
Drought makes agriculture fail, which empties the countryside further, which raises fire risk and lowers water, which threatens the tourism infrastructure that replaced the agriculture.
Loop 5: Low Wages-Productivity-Brain Drain TrapDocumented
Low productivity keeps wages low, so innovative people leave, which slows innovation, which keeps productivity low. The IMF and OECD both name this loop.
Loop 6: Ageing-Fiscal Pressure-Underinvestment SqueezeDocumented
The cost of ageing fills the fiscal room, which crowds out investment, which lowers growth, which reduces revenue and raises the pressure. The OECD warns of it explicitly.
Loop 7: Regulation-Scarcity-Price SpiralPartially documented
Complex permitting slows construction, which creates scarcity, which drives prices, which builds political pressure, which leads to more regulation. In 2024 only 28,000 units were permitted.
The Cascade: These loops explore how different problems can reinforce one another. Investigating connections can help us understand the multiple effects of a measure. Which intervention works must be investigated in each situation.
The Pattern
- Extraction over circulation. Value leaves without returning.
- Monoculture over diversity. Single points of failure everywhere.
- Rigidity over adaptation. Regulations designed for one era block the next.
- Separation over integration. Housing, agriculture, energy, health, education administered as separate domains.
- Control over trust. Top-down management instead of conditions for local intelligence.
Systems theory offers a perspective on the tension between efficiency, resilience and adaptability. We use it here as an analogy; it is not a complete diagnosis of a society.
The Principles
Sources: Götsch, Ingham, FAO 10 Elements of Agroecology, Ostrom, Holling, Meadows. These are functional analogies between ecological and social systems. The parallels are instructive, not literal.
Note: these are functional analogies between ecological and social systems. Both are complex adaptive systems. The parallels are instructive, not literal.
- Principle 1: Diversity Is a Survival Strategy. Diversity can support different functions and sources of resilience. How it works depends on the species, place and management.
- Principle 2: Value Must Circulate. Cycles of nutrients, knowledge and resources help us ask what is used, replenished and shared.
- Principle 3: Succession Creates Productivity. Ecological succession inspires thinking about development over time. Yields and effects must be tracked for the chosen cultivation and conditions.
- Principle 4: The Soil Is the Economy. Soil life and quality sustain an ecosystem’s functioning. The analogy invites us to investigate the foundations beneath an economy too.
- Principle 5: Resilience Comes from Redundancy. Several ways to fulfil a function can reduce vulnerability. The benefits and costs of this diversity require a concrete assessment.
- Principle 6: Information Creates Coherence. Feedback helps systems adapt. For organisations, this requires information people understand and room to act on it.
The Mapping
| Problem | Principle | Possible practice and research question |
|---|---|---|
| Loss of knowledge and skills | Investigate what keeps people and knowledge in a place. | Meaningful work, participation and affordable services. |
| Depopulation and local services | Connect functions and long-term care. | Local cooperation and a sustainable implementation route. |
| Housing affordability | A design suited to people and surroundings. | Affordability, permits and suitable materials. |
| Dependence on one economic activity | Diversity can spread dependencies. | A well-supported mix of activities and income. |
| Drought and water use | Investigate water and soil together. | A measurement plan for moisture, consumption and management. |
| Fire risk in the landscape | Adapt management to local ecology and risks. | Expert advice and an appropriate management and safety plan. |
| Productivity and quality of work | Connect functions and learn from their interaction. | Track yields, resources and working conditions. |
| Health and wellbeing | Investigate everyday conditions and mutual support. | Collect participants’ experiences; professional care remains available. |
| Cooperation between generations | Pass on knowledge and responsibility. | Accessible participation and long-term agreements. |
| Implementation rules and integrated plans | Connect feedback with decision-making. | A dossier, suitable procedure and a pilot question that can be assessed. |
| Problems that reinforce one another | Consider connections in design and evaluation. | Investigate the chosen intervention and its effects. |
Problem
Loss of knowledge and skills
Principle
Investigate what keeps people and knowledge in a place.
Possible practice
Meaningful work, participation and affordable services.
Problem
Depopulation and local services
Principle
Connect functions and long-term care.
Possible practice
Local cooperation and a sustainable implementation route.
Problem
Housing affordability
Principle
A design suited to people and surroundings.
Possible practice
Affordability, permits and suitable materials.
Problem
Dependence on one economic activity
Principle
Diversity can spread dependencies.
Possible practice
A well-supported mix of activities and income.
Problem
Drought and water use
Principle
Investigate water and soil together.
Possible practice
A measurement plan for moisture, consumption and management.
Problem
Fire risk in the landscape
Principle
Adapt management to local ecology and risks.
Possible practice
Expert advice and an appropriate management and safety plan.
Problem
Productivity and quality of work
Principle
Connect functions and learn from their interaction.
Possible practice
Track yields, resources and working conditions.
Problem
Health and wellbeing
Principle
Investigate everyday conditions and mutual support.
Possible practice
Collect participants’ experiences; professional care remains available.
Problem
Cooperation between generations
Principle
Pass on knowledge and responsibility.
Possible practice
Accessible participation and long-term agreements.
Problem
Implementation rules and integrated plans
Principle
Connect feedback with decision-making.
Possible practice
A dossier, suitable procedure and a pilot question that can be assessed.
Problem
Problems that reinforce one another
Principle
Consider connections in design and evaluation.
Possible practice
Investigate the chosen intervention and its effects.
What Sulitânia shows
The description below summarises Sulitânia’s practice documentation from the original June 2026 analysis. It concerns work at the previous site. Sulitânia is winding down that work and seeking a new location. This summary is not an independent impact evaluation.
Ecological: Planting, a food forest, a seed bank and an experimental plot are described in the original case. Changes in soil, water and biodiversity require a traceable baseline and follow-up measurements.
Energy: The case describes local solar energy and storage. Capacity, actual consumption and the total footprint are different data and must be assessed separately.
Economic: The original text describes several activities, member contributions and investments. A current business case needs fresh evidence for demand, costs, available capacity and agreements.
Social: The practice included cooperation, decision-making and recorded meetings. Experiences, including conflicts and lessons, provide material for reflection and further research.
Policy: The aims relate to innovation and development frameworks. A policy connection guides the conversation; the status of applications, permits and partner agreements requires separate documentation.
Syntrociety
"A society designed the way living systems work."
Six design rules carry it.
- Diversity first. Each element serves several functions, and each function is carried by several elements.
- Circulation over accumulation. The ten-percent contribution, the Friends programme, the internal market, the shared tools. When value stops moving, the system dies.
- Succession, not imposition. Begin with what is possible, and build the conditions for the next phase, since each phase creates what follows.
- Soil before harvest. Invest in relationships, governance, repair and trust before expecting productivity.
- Feedback over control. Governance by consent, conflict as information, documentation as memory, transparency as immune system.
- Scale follows rhythm. One household a year, one hectare a season. The land sets the pace.
Implications
- Long-term care needs sustainable foundations. Investigate how people, services, work and nature restoration can sustain one another.
- Living Labs need a workable route. Establish with competent authorities which procedure and conditions fit the place.
- Cooperatives can support cooperation. Clear agreements must show how decision-making, work and resources are organised.
- Ecological restoration can connect several kinds of value. Measure effects on soil, water, biodiversity and people separately; possible benefits are not yet realised income.
- Connections help us ask better questions. Investigate side effects and dependencies when choosing a measure too.
- Practical knowledge belongs in development. Involve those who do the work and experience the consequences in design and evaluation.
Closing
Living systems offer concepts through which we can reconsider social and ecological questions. This analysis uses that perspective to investigate connections and formulate new questions for practice.
Sulitânia’s experience brings lessons and open questions. The next step is to support them with stronger evidence alongside participants, researchers and public partners. Living together, restoration and learning gain value through what people can do with them.
Does this analysis reveal a question from your work? We would like to hear which experience, source or research question you want to contribute.